HYLAND
with Japan more difficult. Chinese public opinion is also
hostile to Japan, evident in opinion polls, social media
and the ease with which anti-Japanese boycotts occur.
So, domestic politics as well as geopolitics are driving
both China and Japan to be more assertive, and this
worries Washington. When Abe visited the controversial
Yasukuni shrine for Japanese war dead at the end of
December, it not only stoked tension with China and
South Korea which issued strong protests, the United
States publicly stated it was "disappointed."
In his comments at Davos, Abe, presumably thinking
of the strong trade links between his country and
China, said the economic links between Germany and
Britain did not prevent war in 1914. Some listening
to the Japanese prime minister came away with the
impression he thinks pecuniary interests may not be
strong enough to deter a military clash.
If a conflict between Beijing and Tokyo were to break
out, the US could not bank on its other ally in the
region, Seoul, given the tense relations between South
Korea and Japan which have their own territorial and
historical disputes. So Washington would choose
between honoring its defense treaty with Japan and
avoiding direct conflict with China. As Washington
would stand to lose the trust of many allies in the region
and is not noted for eating humble pie, the odds would
suggest support for Japan. So if there is any parallel
