HYLAND
Growing more powerful in recent years, China has
increased pressure on Japan to acknowledge there is
a dispute over the islands. China now regularly sends
ships and planes to patrol near the islands, the Japanese
respond with patrols of their own, and the likelihood of
an accidental clash is increasing.
So even if comparisons with 1914 are off the mark,
conflict between China and Japan could still be a
possibility.
Abe is a seen as a nationalist who would like Japan to
move on from the pacifism imposed on it by the United
States after 1945. He may not go as far as changing
the pacifist elements of the constitution, but he wants
to change Japan's defense posture, so the armed
forces take a more assertive role – up to now, Japan
has relied heavily on the United States to defend the
areas around it – and he justifies this by pointing at
China's growing military capabilities and doubts over
Beijing's intentions.
In Beijing, Xi is focused on reforming the economy
and cleaning up the corruption that's undermining the
Communist Party's legitimacy, which would suggest he
does not want a war. But for his reforms to succeed,
maintaining tension with Tokyo and a sense of threat
from abroad is useful as it encourages loyalty to the
center. Xi will also need support of the military and
security apparatus for his reforms as he takes on vested
interests in the party leadership, provincial governments
and large state enterprises, and this makes compromise
