HYLAND
If those 1914 comparisons are to hold true, then China
would be seen as playing the role of Germany, the
rising power, challenging the established power, the
United States, in the role Britain played a century ago.
This is often called "the Thucydides Trap," named for
the Ancient Greek historian of the Peloponnesian War,
during which Sparta had confronted the rising power
of Athens.
Washington and Beijing are clearly wary of each other,
yet it's also clear both want to avoid conflict. While
Chinese economy will continue growing faster and top
US GDP in the next decade or so, the two countries
are economically and financially interdependent. China
is also modernizing its military and developing its navy
and air force, so it can secure the sea lanes it now
depends on to import the energy and raw materials on
which its economy depends, and this challenges the
US dominance of the seas in Asia maintained since the
Second World War.
The Obama administration has pursued its "rebalance"
or "pivot" to Asia for the past three years. This has
involved focusing military as well as economic attention
on the region and has raised suspicions in China where
many see it as a Cold War–style containment policy.
American officials insist the pivot is not containment and
avoid any appearances of the US calling the Chinese
out; instead US officials are urging Beijing to be more
transparent about its military capabilities and to develop
crisis management mechanisms so accidental conflict
can be avoided.
