HYLAND
L ONDON: Historical analogies often take the
place of analysis – even more so when the implications
of analogy are too horrendous to be spelled out. As we
prepare to mark the centenary of the outbreak of First
World War, ominous parallels are being drawn between
rising tension between Japan and China and that
between Germany and Britain before the outbreak of
the World War. Such comparisons are relevant. China
and the United States and its ally, Japan, today may
not be the mirror image of European powers which
came to blows, but the cascading alliances that led to
the conflagration in 1914 still hold lessons for today.
The parallel to 1914 grabbed international headlines
when, during a meeting in Davos Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzō Abe said the situation between China
and Japan was similar to that between Germany and
Britain a century ago. Officials tried to clarify afterwards,
insisting Abe had not suggested there would be a war.
By evoking 1914, the prime minister knew the image
he conjured.
The reaction to Abe's comments suggest that
drawing analogies between 2014 and 1914 may not
only be potentially misleading, it can also add to the
tension: China responded by accusing Japan of being
a "troublemaker" – the role many have ascribed to
Germany in the run-up to the First World War.
